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El Nino and the World's Weather

Periodically we find unusually warm ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean. Moving along the equator, they bring warm water to the west coast of South America. The Spanish name for these currents is El Niño, which means Little Boy.

The warming of the water in the tropical Pacific Ocean is the first sign of El Niño. It often triggers major changes in global weather patterns. These far reaching consequences were seen in the droughts and wild fires in Australia in 1982, in a rare hurricane in Hawaii, and flooding in Louisiana. In 1992, El Niño caused more rain in a two week period in southern California than they usually receive in a year.

Accurately predicting the next occurrence of El Niño is difficult because the reasons for its appearance are not well understood. Historical records show that El Niño has probably been occurring for centuries. It happens unpredictably every two to seven years.

Ocean warming causes more warm air to rise. This changes the air pressure and flow patterns in the high altitude winds, which are responsible for directing the movement of weather. The severity of the El Niño effect depends on how much the ocean actually warms.

So next time there’s a report of an unusually warm Pacific Ocean, it may affect you even if you live in another part of the world.

“Unpredictable as the weather” is a term we all understand. We apply it to the stock market, future hopes and dreams, and to people we consider to have unstable personalities.

While an unpredictable streak may make some people exciting and challenging to be with, most of us prefer to form relationships with people who are steady and reliable. We don’t want them to be predictable to the point of boredom - those who run their lives with a stopwatch, and whose responses are always the same. We don’t want them to be so steady they can never experience development and growth in character.

But we recognize that too much unpredictability can be dangerous. Like the El Nino phenomenon, an unpredictable personality can wreak emotional havoc in a variety of ways. Too much unpredictability in those we rub shoulders with, makes us nervous. We tend to put some distance between them and ourselves.

In spite of your need for the occasional period of excitement and adventure, don’t you sometimes long for some old-fashioned predictability?

Perhaps the reason some people are so interested in science is because it explores the patterns of the universe - how its creatures and matter fit into the scheme of things. In other words, they get a sense of stability from knowing how things work. Why? Because they can then predict how things will turn out. Or, at least, they can gather enough evidence to suggest there is some meaning and order to their existence.

We all need that. Without meaning, life seems to exist in a vacuum. Many disillusioned people and potential suicides have expressed their feelings in the following or similar vein: “What’s the point?” Without meaning they see no reason to continue.

Many follow the Christian way because it has given them a sense of purpose. They feel sure of the future because they believe God has made certain promises. Based on those promises they can “predict” the positive outcome of their lives.

Have you a predictable future? If so, what would that future be?

David Humphreys and Christopher Shennan